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Winnie's Coalition

The final election result has confirmed that National will need at least two other Parties for a majority in Parliament. National lost two seats, and Te Pati Māori gained two Māori electorates, enlarging the seat overhang to two. So National and Act are three seats short of a majority. Winston Peters is kingmaker again. 

A three-Party coalition is difficult to operate. The policy trade-offs are easy. The hard part is the thing that really runs politics: events. Managing response to events between three very different Parties is complicated. 

The other challenge to this coalition will be a refreshed, belligerent, and radical opposition from the Māori and Green Parties. The strength of their focus on social issues, supported by media and the governing class, will severely test National and the Prime Minister. 

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