Election 2023

Party Policies & Political Performance.

MPs have now hit the campaign trail to make the case for their return next term.

Blackland will cover this year’s campaign.

You can follow our daily insights below and on our LinkedIn.

Our focus is political performance – to assess by election day which party ran the best campaign, which policy had the biggest influence, and which MP was the best performer.

Friday, 13th October.

Final Campaign note:

The General Election is tomorrow. We have followed the campaign daily. While it matched the usual shape of elections, there was feeling of performative flatness. Labour seemed to have given up. National stayed within a safe lane. None of the minority parties shone. Many voters were unsure who to support, and many of those who did, were without strong conviction. This has created the possibility of a surprising outcome tomorrow.

Here’s our take on the best and worst of the campaign:

Best campaign: NZ First. Winston Peters led an impressive return from minimal investment. Shows the power of concentrating your message and your audience, and the power of a reputation. Other political parties and media spooked themselves into giving him campaign presence and power beyond his means.

Worst campaign: ACT. Peaked too early, getting lost in the noise of the campaign. Under early pressure from unsympathetic media, David Seymour surprised supporters by tossing problematic candidates under the bus. ACT could not get traction on issues that arose, like Pharmac. A lack of warmth and presence in the top team, except for Nicole McKie, held them back. A large campaign budget, with cut-through advertising and messages, and a bus and airplane, may have saved them.

Best performer: Chris Luxon. He grew in confidence as a relentless meet-the-public campaign revealed to him the attitudes of ordinary voters. He seemed to genuinely enjoy it. As he noticed the mismatch with the beltway, he was harder for the media to bully. His stock campaign lines were boring and repeated unimaginatively but touched the hot button voter concerns. Struggled to combat Hipkins’ firebrand politics during debates.

Worst policy: Space Minister. It ran counter to National’s claim that there’s too much public sector, and the pretension jarred with NZ’s culture of understatement.

Random event: The sudden death of an ACT candidate may have the single biggest impact on the result of any event during the campaign. The postponement for a later by-election will gift an overhang seat to National.

Most awkward moment: Carmel Sepuloni standing in for the Covid-isolating Hipkins, went largely unrecognized during a shopping mall tour. Close second was Luxon being heckled by a Freedoms NZ candidate from behind a fence, while trying to announce a policy to media.

Eating: There is a rule of thumb that campaigning leaders should avoid eating in public, or at least in front of cameras. But the NZ campaign teams embraced food. In a campaign of low expectations, charisma or policy, food was the easiest common language. But what exactly does eating say? Some pundits tried to make out that Hipkins had a touch of the ordinary in eating sausage rolls, pies, and ice creams. But as all other campaigning leaders ate ordinary stuff in front of cameras, it was not significant. Our conclusion is that food was reflective campaigning that was more interested in media moments than meeting the public. Food made for photos, and made public engagements easier than discussing policy.

Tuesday, 10th October.

Port Waikato by-election set for 25 November

Today's focus was the election-affecting result of the death of ACT's Port Waikato candidate, Neil Christensen. The Electoral Commission says that because Christensen died after voting opened, the seat's candidate votes can't be counted. Hipkins today announced a by-election for Saturday 25 November, to fill what will be a seat with no electorate MP on election night.

Port Waikato is currently held by National's Andrew Bayly with a sizeable majority, and was on track to win the seat again. It is likely he would become a list MP on 14 October, then contest and win the by-election and become the electorate MP on 25 November. This would create an overhang seat – adding one more to the 120 created by the General Election. Bayly’s list position would be filled by a new National list MP. If the election is close, this additional seat could give National and ACT the numbers to enter into a majority coalition without NZ First.

Before that by-election though, National may first have to form a minority government with ACT, or even come to a temporary agreement with NZFirst.

Leaders shore up support in marginal seats

Luxon arrived in Nelson this morning to support his local candidate, Blair Cameron. Cameron is up against Labour incumbent Rachel Boyack, who beat National's long-serving Nelson MP Nick Smith in 2020. Luxon continued his charm offensive with Cameron, visiting many dairies and cafes in the CBD, before announcing National's trade policy to double exports over 10 years.

Hipkins dashed between the marginal Labour seats of Ōtaki and Hutt South, supporting candidates Terisa Ngobi and Ginny Andersen. Buoyed by more noticeable support in Ōtaki, his walkabouts were much improved from his Auckland performance. But in Hutt South, he resorted to the far less personable human hoardings. Hipkins has spent a lot of time in Hutt South, in an attempt to protect Andersen from losing her seat to National's campaign chair, Chris Bishop. Hipkins will be nervous, because if Andersen - his police and justice minister - loses her seat, it's possible she may not even be returned to Parliament on Labour's list.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Monday, 9th October.

Peters’ surges with National’s strategic missteps:

Luxon was dogged all day long, yet again, by questions about Peters – this time prompted by Chris Bishops remark that a second election might be needed because of a “very real and growing possibility” a coalition couldn’t be agreed. National ran full-page ads were run in the Herald on Sunday and Sunday Star Times, suggesting Peters would be responsible for eight weeks of coalition talks and a stalled economy.

Peters hit back, calling National’s claims “scaremongering” and “bovine scatology”. Worse for National, it gave momentum to Peters with five days until polls close. He secured more media attention at the expense of ACT, National’s preferred coalition partner, with media coming to him for comment. And it validated Peters’ claim that National is politically inexperienced, with Luxon then forced to say that it’s unlikely there will be second election. National is selling Peters proposition that Luxon needs his wise counsel around the Cabinet table.

National’s biggest strategic challenge this campaign has been what to do with Winston Peters. National hasn’t been able to decide what to do with Peters during the campaign. He’ll take their lunch money when it comes to coalition negotiations.

On the hustings:

At the Johnsonville Mall, Seymour had a rough start with several people actively avoiding him when he arrived. For Seymour, this came before the ACT candidate for Port Waikato died, and an ACT candidate was found to have liked a racist comment on LinkedIn.

At Auckland’s Commercial Bay mall, Hipkins was flanked by his local Labour candidates and supporters, but few members of the public seemed eager to meet him.

This contrasts with Luxon’s reception in public. He was a warmly welcomed in Rangiora. Many locals and supporters approached him to wish him well, with one woman jumping out of her car to tell him she’d voted for National. He was even well-received when visiting shops in Kaiapoi, a traditional Labour area. National will be hoping that this reception on the ground translates into votes on election day.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Friday, 6th October.

Weekly update:

Winston’s back

NZ First has not got a lot of media coverage during the campaign, despite Winston’s packed meetings and rock star walkabouts. But it has had a lot of media attention – as journalists have wielded the party as a conceptual weapon to spice up the contest.

Despite the knowing sniggers at Winston and NZ First, by media, commentators and politicians, or maybe because of them, the party has steadily gained in polls.

A Curia poll released today puts NZFirst at 6.9%. National is 35.9%, Labour 27.9%, Act 9.1, Green Party to 10.6%. That gives National and Act only 58 seats.

There was a lot of discussion about Winston’s combative interview with the confounded Jack Tame, and ahead of the minor party leaders debate convened by Tame on TV1 this week. Winston didn’t deliver on the billing, his long sentences padding the punch of their meaning.

The media prefer a bogeyman-like caricature for NZ First, so at the end the week they were still presenting the now virtually certain switch to a centre-right government as ‘limboland’.

This construction of the situation spooked National into criticising ACT’s “divisive” policies, presumably in a hope to gain more centrist votes. ACT toughened its rhetoric to regain votes lost from Seymour’s campaign restraint, and appealed to voters not to fall for Winston’s empty version of similar rhetoric.

Seymour may have made the most significant miscalculation of this campaign. It was his softening of ACT’s rhetoric, in response to media bullying, that allowed NZ First the space it needed to attract votes.

The wasteland weeks

In previous elections, political debate goes septic, and a bit stir crazy in the final weeks. This time around though, it’s been a wasteland of trivial policies (a Space Minister), arcane arguments (how many people get National’s full tax break that is unlikely to happen anyway), and ideas already announced (ACT’s rehash of health policies).

The week started with spark, with accusations of gang intimidation of centre-right candidates and racist hassling of centre-left candidates. But the promise of an interesting week faded, as the dull reality of these incendiary claims caught up with the early exaggeration. It was telling that the reappearance of Hipkins on Friday after a week isolating with Covid contributed nothing to make the day more than any of the others during the week.

One thing this campaign has repeated from past elections is the predictable hand-wringing about the state of civil debate, about dirty tricks, and public harassing innocent politicians.

It is not surprising to hear members of the public moaning that the election might as well be held now. There doesn’t seem much to be gained or learned from the next eight days.

James Shaw wins a debate

The Green’s co-leader “won” this week’s TV1 debate between minor party leaders. He carried himself with more aplomb, in a kind of Peter Dunne way, but unafraid to drop the gravitas to deliver bitter zingers at David Seymour.

This was a critical event given the Green Party’s lack of cut-through over the whole campaign. Even Marama Davidson’s early vote photo opp got a little messed up. It’s possible Shaw may have won over a few Labour-swinging voters.

Despite a somewhat bombastic performance by Seymour, he would have achieved what he needed; to be a more reliable and articulate version of Winston Peters.

Overall, the quality of debate and ideas was a little dispiriting for those frustrated at the ordinariness of the two major party leaders.

Thursday, 5th October.

A new poll has found that National and ACT may need NZ First to form a government, with Winston Peters back as the "Kingmaker". This has given impetus to those warning of the "coalition of chaos" (a phrase National will rue initiating). If Peters considers such things, he will be challenged by how to show potential voters he can be trusted, without losing those attracted by his readiness to upset the norm. His first chance will be in tonight's 1News Multi-Party Debate – moderated by Jake Tame, with whom Peters belligerently clashed on TVNZ’s Q&A.

ACT’s David Seymour has already faced a similar situation at the start of the campaign, when media scrutiny of candidates bullied him into uncharacteristic compliance. ACTs early campaign poll climb speedily reversed. It is notable that he has since ramped up his provocative rhetoric.

Peters and Seymour may be incited to strident approaches by news that support for the major parties is the lowest it's been for three decades.

The major parties are now running low on ammunition, announcing relatively trivial policies to secure precious media attention. National today announced its intention to set up a separate Space Minister, while Labour proposed to establish an anti-scamming unit within the FMA.

Grant Robertson and Nicola Willis debated one another through the media, announcing and denouncing the Labour-affiliated CTU's claim that National's plans would see only 3000 families get the full $250 per fortnight tax cut. It's a debate that has raged for weeks, going absolutely nowhere. If anything, it as served to shore up support for the minor parties, who have managed to keep out of these political pillow fights.

Blackland PR's communicator of the day will be determined at tonight's debate!

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Tuesday, 3rd October.

Hipkins is still isolating in an Auckland hotel room with Covid-19. However, that didn’t stop him holding a virtual press conference to make claims that National’s budget numbers don’t add up, to wring his hands over (claims) of angry responses to MPs, and exchange barbs with Luxon as to who is responsible for tonight’s scheduled leaders debate being canned.

Labour said Luxon “chickened out” when he pulled out of a debate after Hipkins cancelled with Covid. Labour’s health spokesperson uncharacteristically posted a politically-charged caricature of Luxon in a chicken suit, which quickly received a community note on X (formerly Twitter) flagging misinformation. Luxon responded in good grace with a picture of him eating KFC.

National said Luxon can’t find an alternative date to make up the debate, but offered to make available their deputy leader Nicola Willis to debate Labour’s deputy Kelvin Davis. Labour refused. Davis would have struggled.

Carmel Sepuloni, standing in for Hipkins, put on a brave face meeting few people during mall walk and University visit in Christchurch.

Meanwhile, Winston Peters came under fire for allegedly spreading misleading climate information on the campaign trail, linking tsunamis to climate change. Three climate experts called out Peters’ claims, but it’s likely this will only endear Peters’ voters to him, given their distrust of so-called “experts”.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is National’s Simon Watts, for refusing to back down to Labour and the Greens in today’s climate debate on Morning Report. This is not natural territory for National, but Simon did well to spell out his party’s plan to tackle methane emissions.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Monday, 2nd October.

On the day early voting opened, National made explosive claims that gang members are campaigning in support of Labour, which includes intimidation of National candidates and volunteers. It has cited specific instances.

Hipkins succumbed to COVID-19 over the weekend, deciding to isolate himself at home. This has ended his face-to-face tour in the second-to-last week. It also prevents him attending the Press Leaders Debate on Tuesday. Carmel Sepuloni has taken over Party fronting duties, ahead of Deputy Leader Kelvin Davis.

That gave National a cheeky chance to assert that its Deputy Leader, Nicola Willis, should debate Davis.

After weeks of packed town hall meetings New Zealand First has started its usual late publicity run. Winston Peters gave two TV interviews on the weekend which will provide plenty of clickbait video clips. Today he walked Albany Mall and visited an RSA.

NZ First also released its policies for older voters; keeping superannuation linked to wages not inflation, pay 50% of rates and full costs of two doctor visits of Super Gold Card holders, plus look at retirement village management.

The Green Party is still not doing a lot of hustings. The most significant public event today for James Shaw was at Victoria University, where he cast his early vote for a gaggle of media. The Greens were talked about though, with the Twitterati fuelling a topic that arose from a question to Shaw on Sunday about whether the Greens would support National.

For the record, Luxon ruled that out today, while on his own photo opp to vote early with his wife in Botany, proving an interesting opportunity for her to speak about the election campaign.

Communicator of the day:

Winston Peters for storming back into the campaign with his belligerent and boisterous arguments with the media, who he senses are one of the reasons for the public anger which is becoming such a media talking point.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Sunday, 1st October.

Elephant in the room

This week’s Newshub Leaders Debate saw Hipkins and Luxon face off once again. This debate was the most animated of the campaign so far, with Hipkins scoring the best political hit of the night, accusing a NZ First candidate of racism before confronting Luxon about why he’s willing to work with Winston Peters.

Luxon's equivocation showed his lack of preparedness and experience for what was a clearly expected question. But the entire exchange strikes at a more interesting observation: that Peters doesn’t need to be in the room to be the centre of attention. He dominates political discourse simply by being relevant.

His relevance doesn't come from actively seeking media attention, because for Peters that attention is generated organically. Rather, it comes from posing a threat or imbalance to the political order. He foists himself onto the public conscious by forcing political leaders and voters to think hard about how they will treat him. That means every time Hipkins or Luxon discusses whether they plan to rule Peters in or out is in itself a political story.

This plays perfectly into Peters hands. Instead of being starved of political oxygen, his opposition - including the media - are giving him all the attention he needs to return to Parliament. That's because Peters understands that key political truth: that "there is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about."

Public Apathy Overshadows Fiscal Plan Releases

Grant Roberston and Nicola Willis clashed this week, as Labour and National unveiled their respective fiscal plans. Despite the media attention given to their political point scoring, their plans were met with muted applause by the public.

Voters aren't interested in detailed costings and the resulting political opprobrium. They want to know what's in it for them. They want to see something new. People are tired with trite political announcements, replete with shallow promises.

It's little wonder then that support for the major parties is at a historic low. With very little difference in substance and style between them, apathetic voters have started to look elsewhere: to the minor parties. Labour and National need to realise that as the minor parties' chip away their support, the harder it will be for them to actually deliver their fiscal plans.

Campaign larger than it looks

We’re really seeing only the tip of the campaigning iceberg. The bleached and brittle race between the two major party leaders is the most uninteresting part of what is happening in electorates and sectors of interest.

For those who care to look, there’s streamed debates on specific policy areas such as health, aged care, oceans and youth.

For those in the suburbs there’s vibrant candidate town hall meetings and debates.

This is where Winston is making his ground in packed halls and a well-funded campaign. This is also where ACT has been travelling, but without a similar effect in the polls.

To the majority of voters, there’s only the daily visits of the leaders to one photo opportunity after another, and the uninteresting or unedifying leaders’ debates.

Caught on no-mans land are the Greens; without a ground game because they are usually so well covered by mainstream media, but now largely abandoned.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Thursday, 28th September.

Today’s political news was dominated by the Freedoms and Rights Coalition march on Parliament, where 1,000 gathered to protest ‘Agenda 2030’ and other disparate issues. The protest wasn’t designed to change the minds of politicians, as politicians are currently on the campaign trail. Rather, it was a political demonstration by a minor party to capture media attention before the polls open on Saturday. It was designed to show political strength, and capture votes from undecided voters that it needs to get over the 5% threshold. Despite the overblown concern the protest could resemble last year’s occupation of Parliament, the political demonstration ended without issue early afternoon.

The media was otherwise focused on last night’s Newshub Leaders Debate, which saw Hipkins and Luxon face off once again. This debate was the most animated of the campaign so far, with Hipkins bringing a mongrel that the public hadn’t seen before. This surprising on-stage energy was why most commentators awarded him the best performance of the night, even if he gave long-winded answers and a poor defence of Labour’s legacy. He will need to temper his negativity in future debates, or risk alienating the support of swing voters who will be put off. Nevertheless, he was able to pressure Luxon, who couldn’t hide behind press release talking points. This ended with Luxon committing to policy on the fly and flip-flopping on answers. That’s why we give it to Hipkins, but only by a nose.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is Brian Tamaki, for staging a protest to absorb media attention that otherwise wouldn’t be afforded to his party just before the polls open. Media were all too willing to give him a platform, by hyping up and reporting on his protest.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Wednesday, 27th September.

Labour released its fiscal plan this morning, with Grant Robertson saying the 12-page plan is "balanced, costed and credible". He contrasted it with National's tax plan and yet-to-be released fiscal plan, due Friday. It was designed to show that Labour has the chops to manage the economy.

Robertson got ahead of himself, claiming that now – the period during which his Government is in charge - is too volatile to add new taxes. It’s challenging for Labour to promise to spend within a tight budget. And what's more, Labour's has promised a new tax if re-elected, increasing petrol excise by 12 cents per litre over the next three years.

Robertson wasn't the only one to shoot himself in the foot today. National's police spokesperson, Mark Mitchell, was ridiculed for promising an extra 300 frontline constables over the next four years. The policy isn't the issue, but rather that it was indistinguishable from Labour's police announcement three weeks ago. Even the costings are the same. So National has promised to "restore law and order" because Labour's been "soft on crime", by copying Labour’s police policy.

Blackland PR's communicator of the day is Winston Peters, for pointing out what we've been saying since day one on the campaign trail: that "photo opportunities" of leaders eating sausage rolls and ice creams were not what the people of New Zealand wanted. It is avoiding live issues in our communities.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Tuesday, 26th September.

Last night’s Newshub Reid Research poll dominated this morning’s media rounds, with Labour and ACT forced to explain their recent drop in support.

Labour’s drop to 26.5% and Hipkins’ drop to 19.1% in the preferred prime minister poll all but seals Labour’s fate. Coupled with Hipkins’ decision to rule out Winston Peters, pollsters give Labour a measly 0.2% chance to return to government. When asked about the polls, Hipkins put on a brave face. But the polls continue to drive self-preservation among Labour candidates. Hipkins was forced to correct his candidate Ibrahim Omer for suggesting that Labour hasn’t “given up” on a wealth or capital gains tax, despite Hipkins ruling them out. Chalked up to the left-leaning pressure in Wellington Central, Omer slipped up because he’s on track to lose the current Labour seat to opponents that have pledged a wealth tax as a bottom-line.

Luxon announced that National would introduce a “traffic light system” of sanctions for unemployed beneficiaries who persistently fail to meet their benefit obligations. It would also index benefits to inflation. This was a political statement rather than a policy announcement, drawing a line under Labour’s significant increase in benefit dependency. It was also cleverly timed, beating NZ First’s announcement of its own beneficiary policy, proposing a two-year cap on the length of time a person can receive the Jobseeker benefit over their lifetime.

Blackland PR communicator of the day is Chris Luxon for a solid, if earnest, performance handling personal quick fire yes/no questions on Jeremy Well’s Radio Hauraki show. It didn’t match the international entertainment value of Hauraki’s wilder quick fire interview with John Key eight years ago, but it displayed Luxon’s growing confidence.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Monday, 25th September.

It was yet another quiet weekend on the hustings, with minor policy announcements from each party on immigration.

In contrast, Monday (today) sparked to life with Luxon confirming what everyone already knew: that if he must cut a deal with Winston Peters to form government, he will.

Voting starts from this weekend. So although it appears an unplanned response to polling, his announcement is on cue, hedging bets on likely coalition partners. The cost of vacillation on this issue has been media focussed on post-election hypothetical questions, rather than Luxon’s policies. Worse, his “coalition of chaos” attack against Labour, the Greens, and the Maori Party is now blunted by his own potential coalition.

Hipkins is shoring up the leftwing vote. Today he released Labour’s climate manifesto, committing to a second Emissions Reduction Plan, establishing a Minister for Just Transitions, and reforming the ETS to drive gross emissions reduction. The manifesto is the first of its kind, but unlikely to appeal to the centre and swinging voter who is far more concerned by the cost of living. We’re predicting Hipkins will use this policy “against” Luxon in their next Leaders’ debate.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is David Seymour, for pushing back about the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick. Chlöe claimed that ACT was “race-baiting” and “divisive”, but when Seymour pressed her for one specific example, she said she’d have to get back to him.

Daily performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Friday, 22nd September.

Events not reflected in campaigns

In previous elections, any one of a range of events that occurred this week would have dominated the talking points of campaigning MPs. But they haven’t. There’s a strange disconnection between the topics of the campaign, and real events.

Consider; Hospital doctors are still striking and have served notice for full-day strikes. Gangs beat up people in public in small towns like Coromandel. Petrol hit record high prices. There’s a water boil notice in Queenstown as cryptosporidium sickens over two dozen people. Extensive scrub fires in South Canterbury. State of emergency in Southland from floods and snow. A report of sexual misbehaviour from staff at Oranga Tamariki. A new Covid variant. A new case of mycoplasma bovis, mere months after claiming it was eradicated.

Apart from short comments to journalists following the leaders, political parties have not grabbed these issues. The campaigns have stuck to their planned set pieces, living in a New Zealand of morning teas, production lines and stand-up policy announcements.

It’s important that they have not addressed these issues, because what makes a success or failure of any Government is not its policy or vision, but the way it handles events.

The debate about debates

The big event of the week was the first televised leaders debate between Hipkins and Luxon. They tried to play down expectations of their performance, which is fortunate because it wasn’t strong. Luxon is widely thought to have won by a nose. Hipkins did better than we expected, but to win he needed a masterful performance.

Consequently, the next two days of election punditry were about why Hipkins can’t seem to fire. His overall presentation is lumpy, uncertain, and awkward. They contrasted the Hipkins v Luxton debate with the minority party leaders' debate on Thursday, which was fun, illuminating, and passionate.

It’s too soon to write off the debates of Hipkins and Luxon. The usual pattern of all leaders' debates is a stilted first performance as they play it safe. Strategies always broaden for the following debates. Our feeling though is that most strategies and tactics are limited by the narrow boundaries of the public speaking capabilities of the two men.

That losing feeling

We have noted that Hipkins is not performing like someone with lots of confidence in his chances. The downward trajectory of the polls must be deflating to him and Labour MPs. One MP let the cat out of the bag this week. Greg O’Connor, candidate for Ohariu, told voters to give him their electorate vote, because the way things were going, the National candidate Nicola Willis was going to get in anyway and become Finance Minister.

Electorate MPs are struggling. Hipkins’ campaign trail is relatively lightweight, with low numbers of ‘the public’. It looks to us like the MPs supporting his visits are not able to get the platforms and the turnout.

Billboards are a fascinating battleground. Reports from around the country note that Labour billboards are thin on the ground. The most numerous and visible is ACT. They appear to have a great ground game.

What stands out to us is a very significant reversal of many previous elections: Labour’s billboards and posters are being targeted for damage and spray-painted abuse. Almost no other party is being affected. It will be fascinating to see if this is reflected in the election night result.

Weekly performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Thursday, 21st September.

Hipkins was in Hawke’s Bay, promising the region a new hospital if re-elected and jumping on the production line at the Watties factory. Hipkins knows that Labour is exposed in Tukituki and Napier due to resentment from those still affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. Many are frustrated that Hipkins wasn’t there when the region needed him. It’s hard to see that they’ll be happy with him there in an election campaign.

Take a moment to consider that Watties went along with an election visit from Hipkins. Many businesses are nervous about doing something similar. Yet there’s no backlash on Watties. The Hipkins team will be grateful for the platform, but Watties would (probably) do the same for any other party.

Meanwhile, Luxon was in Invercargill, checking out the displays at Transport World and mastering the art of making cheese rolls – the delicacy of the South. At the Southern Institute of Technology, he launched National’s international students policy. To drive the point home, he was joined by former SIT CEO and current National MP for Invercargill, Penny Simmonds, who made a name for herself challenging Labour’s failed polytechnic merger Te Pukenga in Parliament.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is Grant Robertson, for getting the jump on the media and opposition with today’s GDP announcement. He framed the outcome ahead of the announcement, leading media to see the slight improvement as a very good thing. Labour has now got the jump on the opposition several times this campaign, as we saw when Hipkins set the media agenda ahead of PREFU.

Daily performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Wednesday, 20th September.

After the big debate night, the day was quiet apart from pundits proclaiming wins and losses. The consensus seems to be that Luxon won by a nose, but both leaders probably cemented their base. They also felt a bit dull and samey. According to ex-Minister Peter Dunne, that may have been because they both understood what their voters and middle New Zealand wanted. The risk is that the soft approach may have convinced a sizable group of swinging voters to place their vote elsewhere.

Hipkins was in Wairoa, Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay today promising an airfield investment. He admitted that he was wrong in the debate to claim Labour had banned fizzy-drink in schools.

Luxon was in rural South Auckland milking goats.

Shaw quietly toured a residential energy-efficient home.

Winston continued his evening hall-speaking tour. He claimed the Foreign Minister’s presence in the UN was a breach of the election convention.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day was David Seymour, who claimed ACT won the election debate because it appeared, in absentia, to offer a very different approach to the sameness of the two Chrises.

Daily performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Tuesday, 19th September.

Many of us will feel we ought to watch the first leaders’ debate tonight, but without much hope for enlightenment nor entertainment.

Both Luxon and Hipkins have attempted to lower expectations of their performance. Luxon says he’s the underdog, and Hipkins was a “great debater” and “actually better than Chris Bishop in Parliament.” Hipkins says he hasn’t spent much time preparing (!), and that his biggest weakness is not having a photographic memory for facts and figures.

Luxon will want to show he is prime ministerial material – the better of Hipkins – and with an appealing vision for New Zealand. Expect him to attack Labour’s record. But don’t be surprised if he plays it straight and safe: National is polling well-ahead of Labour, so he won’t want to misstep and scare off support. All he needs to do is survive the ninety minutes.

Hipkins has the harder job. He has to defend six years of Labour decision-making, justify why new policies weren’t advanced when he was in government, and overcome apathy and voter fatigue. It’ll be a success if he can ignite Labour core supporters to vote, and persuade some of the “huge undecided vote” he says will determine the election’s outcome. It’ll be an added bonus if he can rattle Luxon, who is relatively untested, and expose flaws with National’s policies to undermine confidence.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day will be determined by the outcome of tonight’s debate, which could go either way.

Daily performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Friday, 15th September.

Election campaign weekly update.

Angry voters

We’re hearing from many parties that MPs are encountering angry people – a general anger about the state of affairs and paucity of political choices. These angry people will not vote for Labour, but aside from that, it is unclear who they will give the vote to.

Labour has locked in the loss

Hipkins looked defeated and deflated on the hustings this week. After a string of bad polls, he’s struggling to keep a brave face or his team motivated.

Senior Labour MPs now realise that on current polling, they’re in danger of not returning to Parliament. Only a few weeks ago, these same MPs were touting Labour’s “presidential style” campaign, for its ability to underscore Hipkins likability. Hipkins’ personality has not been up to the task, and his popularity has instead waned.

Winston is balancing burn with statesman

Winston started the week with his traditional strike on a Māori issue, but balanced the week with more sagely-presented comments. This seems deliberately weighted to appeal to the swinging voters.

National’s numbers nuisance

Luxon is performing well. He even managed to pull off dressing as a pirate at an Auckland festival. Mostly, this is coming from growing confidence – buoyed by the polls, and in turn attracting more voters.

But Luxon has a numbers problem. His deputy Nicola Willis is coming under increasing pressure over the costings of National’s tax policy. This potentially weakens National’s brand as responsible economic managers. At last night’s ASB’s Great Debate, Willis joined the finance spokespeople from other parties to sell their respective economic visions. Willis struggled. The constant heckling about National’s dodgy numbers put her on the back foot. She came across as second best, rather than the finance minister in waiting. So in an attempt to reassure voters, and likely Luxon too, Willis this morning said she’d resign as finance minister if her tax plan fails.

Luxon no doubt realises that Kiwis are less interested in National’s policy assumptions than they are in voting out Labour. But for Luxon, this is an unwelcome distraction. His frustration is evident when media press him on it – particularly when he’s trying to announce other party policy. National was sunk because of its fiscal hole at the last election, so he’ll be desperate to avoid the same fate.

Weekly performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
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Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Thursday, 14th September.

Last night’s 1News Verian poll indicated that NZ First is likely to return to Parliament at the next election.

Hipkins’ deputy, Carmel Sepuloni, was quick to say “the idea of a National / ACT / NZ First government should strike a bit of fear into New Zealand”.

Hipkins himself honed in on NZ First leader Winston Peters, describing him as a “force of instability and chaos”.

But no one’s asked why. Why does Labour think people should fear NZ First? Particularly when Hipkins’ predecessor was only too willing to form a government with Peters six years ago.

It was political opportunism, where concessions were willingly made to remove National from the Treasury benches.

While Labour and NZ were unusual bedfellows, it was an arrangement that seemed to work. Indeed, Labour’s first term with NZ First was more stable than its second term as a majority government.

So what’s happened for Labour to change its tune?

It’s polling badly. Its policy announcements are not earning public enthusiasm. Kiwis think NZ is heading in the wrong direction.

In desperation, Labour is going negative in the hope it will shore up its voter base.

This is a tremendous gamble, especially with so many dissatisfied voters. Candidates for all parties report to us that they’re meeting angry people on the hustings.

Labour’s gamble could make the angry voter look for radical alternatives. And there’s no politician more capable of providing a political home for those people than Peters.

And that’s why Labour is fearful of Peters. Ironically, Labour and National have played a part in created an environment for Peters to make a comeback.

Wednesday, 13th September.

Politicians were on the hustings today, after PREFU soaked up all political attention yesterday.

Hipkins was in Dunedin, where he visited Otago University medical school alongside Health Minister Ayesha Verrall. Hipkins promised to increase the total number of doctors trained in Otago and Auckland each year to 874. It was Labour’s counter to National’s tepidly-received third medical school, but failed to address doctors’ pay and prevent future doctor strikes: the first big issue of the campaign. As a reminder that campaigning is about personality, not policy, more media attention was given to Hipkins’ visit to a student flat named “The Love Shack” than to his policy announcement.

Luxon was in Auckland. He visited Papatoetoe businesses and a Sikh temple, before donning high-vis and safety glasses at the Onehunga Cemix cement factory. An uneventful day, but Luxon made the point of talking up Hipkins’ skills as a debater ahead of the first Leaders Debate on 17 September. He’s doing this to lower public expectations about his performance, with the hope that on the night he can prove the public wrong. But if he fails…

No Blackland PR communicator of the day, with all-round meek media performances on the campaign trail.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Tuesday, 12th September.

Pressure was high today as Treasury opened the books in its Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU).

The day started badly, with an incredible poll result showing National at over 40% support, and Labour at 26%. Hipkins needed Treasury's figures to look better than expected to maintain some public confidence in Labour's economic management. He knew bad figures would be Labour's death knell, following a string of bad polls and lacklustre policy announcements. He also needed defensible figures to take into the upcoming leader's debates, to combat opposition rhetoric.

Luxon, on the other hand, needed the four-year economic forecast to paint a grim picture. He recognised that a poor economic outlook improves National's message for change, and also gives him a way out of earlier financial commitments.

On balance, Hipkins will have breathed a sigh of relief. PREFU was better than expected, with no recession forecast and a surplus pencilled in by 2027. The economy's predicted to grow by 2.6% on average over the next four years. And by 2027, the economy will be $4b larger than Treasury's May, and GDP capita will be similar.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is Hipkins, for using his morning interview run to manage media expectations for today's PREFU announcement. Hipkins knew the media's current predilection for the narrative “things aren’t as bad as they seem”, so took the time to sow that idea with them directly.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Monday, 11th September.

The campaign is running about mid-heat, following a policy heavy weekend, regional tours on today, and Winston Peters getting cut through.

Over the weekend the Greens announced their Oceans and Fisheries policy, with a powerful speech from Marama Davidson. ACT announced its housing policy, leveraging well on the social and emergency housing problems bedevilling towns across the country. National announced its Health Policy of targets and increased workforce. Shane Reti seems fired up by the campaign, asserting that he will be the Health Minister.

Neither Luxon nor Jack Tame came out well from a Q+A interview. Fortunately for Luxon the show averages only about 90,000 people from the beltway, but in national debates Luxon’s low-cost non-engagement approach to campaigning could end up costing more than he anticipated. That overshadowed the far-worse performance on the same show of Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, who had trouble understanding questions from Tame about the party’s tax policy.

Hipkins announced his 9 part personal pledge card at a rally. Labour is placing all bets on Hipkins. Much commentary over the weekend about the absence of passion from his performance.

A small kerfuffle over Seymour’s assertion ACT would hold out on Budget approval in a coalition with National. Luxon resolved in his now usual ‘we’ll sort it out because we know each other’.

Hipkins was in Nelson today not seeing too many people - a dentist, a public transport office and some party faithful. Luxon was in Wellington visiting a shopping mall and retirement home – risking encounters with everyday people, and taking the ultimate political risk – eating a pie in front of the cameras - which worked out well for him.

Blackland PR communicator of the day is Winston Peters, who found a way into the campaign with a slightly new twist on his familiar Māori-related issues, forcing media coverage and other party leaders to respond in predictable ways that would annoy his target-voters.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Friday, 15th September.

Election campaign weekly update.

Angry voters

Labour has locked in the loss

Hipkins looked defeated and deflated on the hustings this week. After a string of bad polls, he’s struggling to keep a brave face or his team motivated.

Winston is balancing burn with statesman

Winston started the week with his traditional strike on a Māori issue, but balanced the week with more sagely-presented comments. This seems deliberately weighted to appeal to the swinging voters.

National’s numbers nuisance

Weekly performance:

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Thursday, 7th September.

Hipkins and Luxon both headed south today, with Hipkins in Hamilton and Luxon in Queenstown.

Hipkins announced part of Labour’s law and order policy to add another 300 frontline police and to target gang convoys. The standup itself made for a striking image, with the city council’s crime camera control room in the background. However, the situation invites more of the kind of criticism Hipkins faces daily about why Labour acts now, not when gang convoys and ramraids began to trouble everyday people.

Luxon was in Queenstown, New Zealand’s tourism capital, where he promised to return tourism to pre-pandemic levels. Luxon’s policy included a new 80km Great Walk, lifting the Working Holiday Visa age limit and scrapping the median wage requirement. While these policies are unlikely to provide a panacea, many tourism providers will feel this is the most policy attention they’ve received in a while.

Blackland PR communicator of the day is Hipkins, for confidently fronting the media with confidence on an issue that’s recently undermined public opinion in Labour. Hipkins relaxed and detail-ready approach contrasted with Luxon’s tongue-tripping tourism announcement.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Wednesday, 6th September.

After yesterday’s attempts in Wellington to woo businesses, the party leaders were back on the campaign trail with Hipkins in Auckland and Luxon in Christchurch.

Hipkins announced Labour’s five-point economic plan which included a $100 million agritech investment and a trade delegation to India. It’s unclear why he left this out of his business speech yesterday, which was the perfect audience for such an announcement. This speaks to a lack of confidence, or fear of business commentary.

Luxon promised $257 million for 10,000 electric vehicle chargers across NZ by 2030, to balance National’s decision to scrap the ute tax and clean car discount. This had the hallmarks of an Ardern-esque announcement, with ambitious targets and little detail on delivery. Echoing the bold targets format is dangerous, given Luxon’s brand leverages on “delivery”.

No Blackland PR communicator of the day, with all-round meek media performances on the hustings.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Tuesday, 5th September.

It was a mundane day on the elections hustings, almost disregarding the first big issue to hit during the campaign: a two-hour hospital doctor strike.

They won’t be able to ignore it for long. If Te Whatu Ora doesn’t meet doctor and dentist demands for pay to keep pace with inflation, additional nationwide strikes are planned before the election.

Political party leaders pitched their policies to businesses at today’s BusinessNZ Election Conference. With New Zealand business confidence low, Hipkins had a tough job selling his plan for New Zealand. He looked exhausted justifying Labour’s record, whereas Luxon seemed was comfortable sharing soundbites to a ‘home game’ crowd.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is Luxon, for pushing back harder on reporters at National’s Mt Vic tunnel announcement. It’s a notable improvement from several months ago. He’s rapidly gaining confidence handling live media questions.

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)

Monday, 4th September.

This weekend saw both Labour and National launch their election campaigns, and more public disruption.

Labour’s effort was dull, aside from the brief disruptions caused by protestors who infiltrated the audience. Hipkins launched Labour’s policy of free dental care by 2026 for everyone aged under 30, echoing a similar policy from the Green Party. The announcement wasn’t a game-changer, with criticisms levelled at the cost ($390 million over four years), the lack of originality, and the long lead-in time.

National’s well-orchestrated launch had the razzmatazz of an American-style political rally. It was designed to show Luxon as the Prime Minister in waiting, not a platform to announce policy. This was criticised for being an empty production.

Today Hipkins was intensely hassled during a public appearance by a restaurateur whose business had been affected by the Covid response.

Blackland PR’s communicator of the day is Winston Peters, for showing the simplest message is usually the best. To separate himself from the inexperience of Hipkins and Luxon, Peters posted a video of him riding into the sunset as Northland’s cowboy with the message “To govern a country you need experience, and this is not our first rodeo.”

Legend:

Profile (public talkability / duration)
Reach (media / social engagement)
Impact (number of people affected)
Clarity (simplest explanation)